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Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events-Robert J. Shiller

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From Nobel Prize–winning economist and New York Times bestselling author Robert Shiller, a groundbreaking account of how stories help drive economic events—and why financial panics can spread like epidemic virusesStories people tell—about financial confidence or panic, housing booms, or Bitcoin—can go viral and powerfully affect economies, but such narratives have traditionally been ignored in economics and finance because they seem anecdotal and unscientific. In this groundbreaking book, Robert Shiller explains why we ignore these stories at our peril—and how we can begin to take them seriously. Using a rich array of examples and data, Shiller argues that studying popular stories that influence individual and collective economic behavior—what he calls "narrative economics"—may vastly improve our ability to predict, prepare for, and lessen the damage of financial crises and other major economic events. The result is nothing less than a new way to think about the economy, economic change, and economics. In a new preface, Shiller reflects on some of the challenges facing narrative economics, discusses the connection between disease epidemics and economic epidemics, and suggests why epidemiology may hold lessons for fighting economic contagions.

Book Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events Review :



You probably don’t have to read this book to understand that the stories we tell ourselves affect our economic decisions. That’s intuitive. What makes Narrative Economics worth reading are the historical examples that Shiller puts in the framework of epidemiology. Like contagious diseases, economic viruses rise, burn out, mutate, and repeat themselves in new generations.9 PERENNIAL ECONOMIC NARRATIVES FROM THE BOOK• Labor-saving machines will put many people out of work.• Automation and artificial intelligence will put many people out of work.• The Great Depression narrative: panic, bank runs, and mass unemployment.• We are in a stock market bubble.• We are in a real estate boom (or bust).• The gold standard will protect the value of money. But bimetallism (or Bitcoin) will help non-elites.• Our culture promotes conspicuous consumption. But during hard times our culture values frugality.• Big business should be boycotted for profiting at the public’s expense.• Labor unions are driving up wages and causing inflation.One of the fun things about this book is the way Shiller explains economic narratives by reaching into the toolkits of many different fields. He considers the theories neuroscientists have about dreams. He reveals what sociologists found when they studied sit-ins during the 1960s, a movement that went viral after a single protest at a lunch counter in 1960 by four students from Greensboro Agricultural and Technical College. He discusses how the narrative in Harriet Beecher Stowe’s 1852 novel, Uncle Tom’s Cabin, energized abolitionists before the Civil War. He even quotes Plato, who warns in the Republic of the power of popular stories.Good stories go viral and have always affected the economy, sometimes dramatically. Shiller shows how other academic disciplines such as history and political science talk a lot more about narratives than the discipline of economics. In this enjoyable book, Shiller builds a new narrative for economic thinking.
As someone who has greatly enjoyed several of Shiller's previous books and respects his innovative and creative economic thinking, I was disappointed to find "Narrative Economics" is exceptionally light on quantitative analysis and rigor. To be fair, these are nascent ideas, at least from a technical standpoint, and potentially quite important. Nonetheless, the lack of actionable insight was frustrating. Some readers may find the meat of the book, Part 3 containing the nine case studies of economically significant narratives, to be interesting and instructive. This reviewer found them lightweight and somewhat difficult to slog through. The book concludes with a chapter on potential quantitative future directions. Let's hope that these ideas mature sufficiently to provide predictions and policy guidelines rather than just a slick story.

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